Politics

What is now happening to the Liberal Party – at least at the state level in Victoria – is reminiscent of the split Victorian Labor went through after the 1950s, which resulted in 27 years of continuous opposition. The split radicalised Victorian Labor and hampered our ability to speak to Victorians on mainstream issues. Sounds familiar. Sixty years later, it is the Liberal Party suffering the same internal tensions – between their alt-right and small “l” liberal members, atrophying their party, narrowing their base and hindering their ability to speak to mainstream Victorians.

Politicians staring down the barrel of defeat inexplicably think the way to avert the harsh judgement of the voters is to abandon the policies and positions that they have argued are best for the nation and do whatever it takes to give the mob what it wants. Consider this: as treasurer, Morrison spent most of the past 12 months arguing against a cut in the migrant intake and for an energy policy called the national energy guarantee.

When the voting is done, and political careers are secured or lost, when the journalists put down their “pens” and head to their families or bed, and when the publishers are onto the next story, the resultant scars from this episode of moral panic will still be carved into our lives. And they will still be there, weakening the ties that bind us into a shared identity as Victorians.

The question dogging Scott Morrison as he rubs shoulders with world leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Port Moresby this weekend is how long he will remain a member of this exclusive club. By his own admission, the chances are slim. The accidental prime minister – catapulted into the job when a majority of the Liberal Party room 12 weeks ago preferred him over Peter Dutton – is failing miserably.

This amount of ridicule this early in a prime ministership is unprecedented and probably irreversible. Even Billy McMahon fared better in his ill-fated 21-month-long prime ministership before falling to Labor’s Gough Whitlam. Has any prime minister missed their own honeymoon? Has there ever been a prime minister not to win a single Newspoll? Is there another prime minister whose first political outing saw the loss of a seat held by their party since Federation?

It could be argued, depressingly, that there is an inverse relationship between the growth of universities and the level of community engagement in politics. In fact, the level of political discourse was far more sophisticated in 1860s America than it is today in 2018 in either country. Lincoln delivered his famous Gettysburg Address in November 1863 at the dedication of a Civil War cemetery. I have long speculated what Lincoln might have said in 2018. Lincoln’s speech was only 272 words long. My draft here is exactly the same length.

The near 20 per cent shift against the Liberals in Wentworth is the harbinger of impending doom for the Coalition government. The third Liberal prime minister in five years admits he has a significant challenge ahead but says he’s “getting on with the job”. Evidence shows he’s not up to it – and frankly nobody is. Because what is required is a complete rebuild of the edifice that is the federal Liberal Party. That sort of remake can only be undertaken in Opposition, with time to sort out differences and test policy directions that are acceptable to what John Howard called “mainstream Australia”.

Voters don’t like Shorten, or trust him, because, among other negatives, ‘he knifed two prime ministers’. But a new book by respected press gallery journalist David Speers, On Mutiny, casts serious doubt on Morrison’s ‘plausible deniability’ that he had nothing to do with the decapitation of Turnbull. Speers writes that Morrison’s closest supporters, Alex Hawke and Stuart Robert, had been on the phones ‘for more than twenty-four hours, albeit without a declared candidate’. We are expected to believe they were doing this without Morrison’s approval.

I keep asking myself what I have done by putting up a tentative hand as a possible independent candidate for the seat currently held by former prime minister Tony Abbott. And, more to the point, why exactly have I done it? Do I really have anything worthwhile to offer the people of Warringah? Am I the right person for this job?

The previous time a byelection was held to replace a prime minister dumped by his own party, the government lost the seat. It was 26 years ago, when Bob Hawke’s seat of Wills fell to the independent Phil Cleary. The Morrison government is giving every impression it fears the same is about to happen in Saturday’s Wentworth byelection. This is in itself remarkable, although the Wills precedent is pertinent. Labor had never lost the seat before its 1992 byelection defeat. Wentworth has been a non-Labor stronghold for 70 years and has close to an 18 per cent margin – twice what Labor had in Wills. But the stakes are infinitely higher this time.