Politics

The previous time a byelection was held to replace a prime minister dumped by his own party, the government lost the seat. It was 26 years ago, when Bob Hawke’s seat of Wills fell to the independent Phil Cleary. The Morrison government is giving every impression it fears the same is about to happen in Saturday’s Wentworth byelection. This is in itself remarkable, although the Wills precedent is pertinent. Labor had never lost the seat before its 1992 byelection defeat. Wentworth has been a non-Labor stronghold for 70 years and has close to an 18 per cent margin – twice what Labor had in Wills. But the stakes are infinitely higher this time.

Morrison is signalling he wants stronger laws exempting religious institutions from Australia’s discrimination laws. Government sources say Morrison believes the Ruddock recommendations are too weak. For example, its recommendations on the legality of refusing gay students say a discrimination policy should apply only to new enrolments and when “the school has regard to the best interests of the child as the primary consideration in its conduct”.

Drought is ravaging the land. Large swaths of eastern Australia are experiencing some of the worst seasons on record. Frosts have wiped out large areas of crops in Western Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. Hail has beaten crops into the ground in Queensland. The government is scrambling to be seen to be doing something meaningful for farmers, particularly in Queensland where traditional National voters are looking to desert in favour of minor parties, such as One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party. At the same time, the climate change debate proceeds at a crawl.

Turnbull allies in the parliamentary party are increasingly sceptical of Scott Morrison’s ‘I knew nothing’ stance. One says Morrison confidant Stuart Robert, a former soldier, planned the manoeuvre with military precision, dudding Peter Dutton and Turnbull in the process. So with emotions still so raw it is little wonder the newly minted prime minister runs for fairly unconvincing cover every time the issue of the ‘coup’ is raised.

The Scott Morrison version of the Liberal government continues to be one of relentless activity and half-baked ideas. Morrison’s hand-waving, an early feature of his prime ministership, became flag-waving during the week as he replanted the Union Jack on the shores of Botany Bay. The arrival of the First Fleet on January 26, 1788 was, the PM proclaimed, “the birthday of modern Australia”. He also raised the prospect of another national day to celebrate the first 60,000 years of the continent’s history.

It is the secular nature of public education that Morrison and his fellow conservative believers don’t like. It’s why conservative prime ministers from John Howard onwards have sneered at the lack of values in public schools. What they really mean is the lack of their particular brand of rigid Christian values. It’s the greatest strength of public education that they reject – inclusivity, the fundamental belief that there are as many ways to live a good life as there are people living lives.

In the government party room on Tuesday Morrison told incredulous members that “we have momentum”. One quipped later: “Yeah, the sort of momentum you get when you jump off a cliff.” Maybe Morrison was taking heart from the fact he was more popular than Bill Shorten in the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll, though not quite as popular as the man he replaced.

The stakes are extremely high in Wentworth. A loss there would see Morrison lose his majority in parliament. The prime minister is understood to have urged his state division to preselect a woman in what is an acknowledgement that he and the party have a “woman problem”. It is more accurately described as a “man problem” – too many men unwilling to share power.

There is compelling evidence a vicious ‘Scuttle Scott’ campaign is under way and, unlike the ‘Kill Bill’ strategy, this one is being mounted from inside the government itself. The new prime minister faces parliament next week for the first time since the Liberal Party toppled Malcolm Turnbull, and most of the ALP’s ammunition against Morrison will come courtesy of internal Liberal leaks and undermining.

Earlier in the week, Bishop announced she would go to the back bench and was coy about her plans up to or beyond the election. She has no ambition to be opposition leader. Friends say the role of governor-general wouldn’t appeal. An ambassadorship or United Nations role certainly would. Morrison may be able to reward her closer to calling an election.